A Grim Statistical History
Teams that go up 3-0 in a best-of-seven Stanley Cup Final have won 27 of 28 series. The only exception came in 1942, when the Toronto Maple Leafs rallied to defeat the Detroit Red Wings. Out of those 28 series, 20 concluded in sweeps.
Now, the Florida Panthers are attempting to sweep the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since the Red Wings eliminated the Washington Capitals in four games back in 1998. Even if the Edmonton Oilers manage to send the series back to South Florida with a Game 4 win, 25 of those 28 series have ended in no more than five games.
Despite the daunting odds, the Oilers still believe they can turn things around.
Oilers' Current Struggles
This season, the Oilers are winless against the Panthers, recording an 0-5-0 record. Edmonton did make a strong push in the third period on Thursday, scoring two gritty goals courtesy of Philip Broberg and Ryan McLeod to narrow Florida's lead to 4-3. However, the critical takeaway from Game 3 was that the Oilers were down 4-1 entering the third period—on home ice, in a must-win game, against a team with a +15 goal differential in the final frame during the postseason.
The Oilers' unraveling came in a dismal 6:19 stretch in the second period when Florida scored three goals. A turnover by Stuart Skinner allowed forward Eetu Luostarinen to find Vladimir Tarasenko, making it 2-1 and deflating the crowd at 9:12. By 13:57, it was 3-1 after solid forechecking by Matthew Tkachuk forced a Darnell Nurse turnover that Sam Bennett capitalized on for his seventh goal of the playoffs. Aleksander Barkov capped Florida's scoring at 15:31, converting a 2-on-1 chance that initiated deep inside Edmonton's attacking zone.
The Stars Fail to Shine
The mistakes piled up for Edmonton, and the goals for their star players did not. Foegele, Broberg, McLeod, and Mattias Ekholm have found the back of the net. However, the Oilers' leading scorers in the playoffs—Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and defenseman Evan Bouchard—have not. These five players also manage the Oilers' power play, which has been ineffective in this series against Florida's penalty kill, which stands at a perfect 10-for-10.
Edmonton's power play entered the series operating at over 37%, the best in the postseason. McDavid has made his presence felt, assisting on three of the Oilers' four goals in the series. The Oilers star is on pace to become just the second player since 1967-68 to record a point on at least half of his team's goals in the postseason, with the only other player to achieve this being Wayne Gretzky for the Oilers in 1988. The other key players, however, have yet to contribute a single point in the Stanley Cup Final.
Taking Responsibility
"Yeah, it's very frustrating, of course. I pride myself on being good in the playoffs and playing well and just can't seem to get anything going. So, yeah, I obviously have to look in the mirror and try to be better," said Draisaitl. He added, "We shot ourselves in the foot a little bit today. Made some individual and collective mistakes that they immediately took advantage of."
Goalie Stuart Skinner shared his disappointment: "It is disappointing being down 3-0. We've got to let that reality sink in. I'm not too sure what the stats are on coming back in it, but if anyone can do it, it's the Oil."
Coach Kris Knoblauch reiterated the belief within the team: "I think we've shown that we can beat this team. I think there's a lot of belief in that. It's not like we're getting outplayed, and we're just saying, 'That team's better than us.' We can string together a lot of wins. We've shown it. I don't think there's any doubt in our room."
Knoblauch cautioned against frustration turning into despair: "There's frustration that we're down, but there's a difference between frustration and quitting. There's absolutely no quit. There's a belief that we can do this, so we just need to keep pushing."
Reflecting on the sequence where the game slipped away, Skinner stated, "After they got that second one, they just kind of got on a roll. We let them take that momentum and stride with it. They got two more quick ones. Just kind of silly mistakes that don't need to happen."
Draisaitl concluded with a note of hope and determination: "We're a good offensive team. They're doing a good job, but we're still getting our looks. It's just when you're chasing the game for a big chunk of the night, it's hard to come back. It's a steep hill right now, obviously. No choice but to take it one game at a time. Try and get one win in Game 4 and go from there."