The Denver Nuggets, crowned as the 2022/23 NBA champions, are set to face off against the Indiana Pacers on Tuesday night at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET, with Denver entering the contest as a 5-point favorite.
Season Standings
With a solid record of 30-14, the Nuggets sit third in the Western Conference, showcasing their prowess and consistency throughout the season. The Pacers, holding a 24-19 record, find themselves seventh in the Eastern Conference. Despite recent struggles, losing four of their last five games, Indiana has maintained a strong presence at home, winning five of their previous six games on their own court.
Game Odds and Betting Lines
Betting lines have been set with a total over/under (O/U) of 239 points for the game. The Nuggets' recent form supports their favoritism, having secured victories in four of their last five matchups and aiming for a third consecutive road win. Conversely, the Pacers are looking to bounce back from a 117-110 defeat at the hands of the Phoenix Suns. However, their home advantage could be significant, given their recent success at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Injury Report
Player availability could play a crucial role in the upcoming game. Tyrese Haliburton's participation remains uncertain due to a hamstring issue, while Isaiah Jackson and Andrew Nembhard are also doubtful for Indiana. The Nuggets will miss the services of Vlatko Cancar, Collin Gillespie, Braxton Key, and Julian Strawther due to injuries. However, Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon are listed as probable and could provide a significant boost for Denver if they take the floor.
Historical Matchups and Performance Metrics
Denver has dominated the recent history between these two teams, defeating the Pacers 117-109 earlier this month and extending their winning streak to seven consecutive games against Indiana. Notably, Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Porter each tallied 25 points in their last encounter, with Aaron Gordon adding 20 points to the effort. The Pacers have not managed to overcome the Nuggets since 2020, suffering four straight home losses in the process.
Despite their championship status, the Nuggets have struggled against the spread (ATS) this season, with a record of 19-24-1, covering only 44.2% of their games. Their ATS performance dips even further following a win, dropping to 35.7%. On the road, Denver has an ATS record of 8-15-0. However, their average margin of victory stands at five, aligning with the current spread.
On the other hand, Indiana boasts a more favorable ATS record for the 2023/24 season at 24-18-2. They cover 60% of their home games and have an impressive 5-2 ATS record when playing as home underdogs. This suggests that the Pacers may outperform expectations in this matchup, especially considering their resilience at home.
Player Spotlights and Statistics
Jokic continues to be a formidable force for Denver, ranking 13th in points per game with an average of 26.1, and standing fourth in the league for rebounds and assists. Murray contributes significantly as well, averaging 20.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per game. For the Pacers, Haliburton leads the team in points per game and assists, although his potential absence could impact Indiana's offensive flow.
The Pacers also welcomed Pascal Siakam from the Toronto Raptors, who made an immediate impact by scoring 21 points in his debut against the Portland Trail Blazers. His presence adds depth and versatility to the Pacers' lineup, which they'll hope to leverage against the reigning champions.
Concluding Thoughts
As the Nuggets aim to extend their dominance over the Pacers, the question remains whether they can cover the spread given their below-average ATS performance this season. Bet Rivers has priced the Nuggets at -175 on the moneyline, indicating confidence in their ability to secure a win. Nevertheless, the Pacers' tenacity at home and the potential return of key players could make for a highly competitive and closely contested game.
Quotes from analysts reflect a belief that Denver's poor ATS showing might not hinder them from covering the spread, given their average margin of victory. Jokic's impact on the game is expected to be significant, and with multiple scoring threats like Porter and Gordon, the Nuggets present a multifaceted challenge for the Pacers' defense. As the