The San Diego Padres have had a season of highs and lows, but as of now, they appear to be hitting their stride when it matters most. Following a loss on July 19 that left them at a 50-50 record, the Padres have surged, currently boasting a commendable 62-52 record. This turnaround has positioned them at the top of the National League (NL) wild-card standings and within striking distance of the Los Angeles Dodgers, trailing by just four games in the heated NL West race.
It's not just the team’s overall performance that's noteworthy; individual players have stepped up considerably since the All-Star break. Manny Machado has been on a tear, hitting .347 with five doubles, four home runs, and nine RBIs in his last 12 games. Xander Bogaerts has also been exceptional, batting .420 with a .551 slugging percentage since July 12. Jurickson Profar has been another standout, posting a .993 OPS with five homers, 12 RBIs, and 13 runs in 15 games since the break. Jackson Merrill has contributed significantly as well, hitting .309 with 10 RBIs and 11 runs, including seven doubles, since the midseason break.
The Padres have enjoyed a remarkable 12-3 record since the All-Star break, showcasing a +42 run differential. This impressive performance is not limited to their batting lineup; their pitching staff has been equally formidable. Starters have gone 8-2 with a 2.61 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP. Notably, Dylan Cease has been nearly unhittable, recording a 0.31 ERA and 38 strikeouts in his last five starts. Michael King has also been reliable on the mound, with a 1.76 ERA over his last five starts, while newcomer Martin Perez made an immediate impact, allowing just one run in six innings and striking out seven in his debut start for the team.
The bullpen has been a strength as well, with Padres relievers posting a 2.96 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 67 strikeouts in 54 2/3 innings since the All-Star break. Robert Suarez has been particularly lights-out, not allowing a run since July 5. Jason Adam has added depth, contributing three scoreless innings since joining the team, and although Tanner Scott allowed a home run in his first outing, he has displayed his power by striking out four in 2 1/3 innings.
In terms of injuries, the Padres have had to navigate through significant blows. Fernando Tatis Jr. has been sidelined since June with a stress reaction in his femur. However, there's good news on the horizon: Joe Musgrove appears close to returning to the mound. Having thrown 41 pitches in a recent rehab assignment, Padres manager Mike Shildt noted there is a "high probability" Musgrove’s next start will be with the big-league club.
Looking ahead, the Padres have a favorable schedule, facing opponents with a combined winning percentage of .481. This gives them a strategic advantage as they aim to secure their playoff spot. Current projections are optimistic, with an 80.2% chance of making the playoffs. However, winning the division remains a challenging task. SportsLine gives the Padres a 15.5% chance, while FanGraphs pegs it slightly lower at 14.5%, and PECOTA offers a more conservative 6.6% chance.
As the Padres continue their quest for postseason success, the blend of stellar individual performances and cohesive team effort bodes well for their chances. If they can maintain their current form and navigate the final stretch of the season with the same level of intensity, the Padres could be a formidable contender in October.