At Progressive Field, the Minnesota Twins endured another setback, blowing a three-run lead to succumb 4-3 to the Cleveland Guardians. This latest defeat, marred by Griffin Jax surrendering a game-winning two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo in the bottom of the eighth, underscores the troubling inconsistencies that have plagued the Twins in recent weeks.
The loss encapsulates the Twins' struggles over their last 27 games, during which they’ve faltered 18 times. Holding on to the third AL wild-card spot by a slimmer 1 1/2 games, the Twins' postseason hopes have dwindled, with their playoff odds dropping precipitously from 95.4% on September 5 to 76.4% today, according to FanGraphs.
Offensive Woes
Offensively, the team has been struggling, failing to score more than three runs in 12 of their last 27 games. Their overall performance in this stretch has been lackluster, with a batting average of .236, an on-base percentage of .296, and a slugging percentage of .381. These numbers paint a grim picture of a team that appears to lose its way at the plate, especially with the bases empty, where their hitting average of .272 places them among the league’s worst.
Max Kepler's anticipated return may offer a glimmer of hope, but the road ahead remains fraught with challenges, primarily on the offensive end. "If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together," emphasized manager Rocco Baldelli.
Pitching Struggles
The bullpen, once a pillar of strength with a 3.84 ERA and a tenth-place rank in win probability added (+3.41) over their first 123 games, has seen a steep decline. In their recent 27-game period, the bullpen’s ERA has plummeted to 5.47, with a league-worst minus-2.75 win probability added.
Starters haven't fared better either, collectively posting a dismal 6.07 ERA and averaging just 4.38 innings per start in the same timeframe. The cumulative fatigue, exacerbated by playing 17 games in the last 18 days, is evident. "We're kind of running on fumes as a staff," admitted Jax after the latest defeat.
Lack of Clutch Performances
The Twins' tendency to falter late in games has exacerbated their struggles. In five of their last 18 losses, the team held a lead in the seventh inning or later, while in two other games they were tied during the same critical period. This inability to close out games has been a particularly bitter pill to swallow for the players. "Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking. Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow," expressed pitcher Pablo López.
Roster Moves and Future Prospects
The recent addition of left-hander Cole Irvin, claimed off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles, hints at the Twins' desperation to shore up their pitching staff. Irvin brings a 4.86 ERA from his 16 starts and nine relief appearances with Baltimore. Twins' personnel believe he could serve as a versatile asset. "We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have? He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help," said Derek Falvey, the Twins' President of Baseball Operations.
Competition Heating Up
The Twins currently fend off challenges from the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners, both just two games behind in the standings. Fortunately, the Twins hold crucial tiebreakers over both teams, although the Tigers' recent surge — winning 23 of their last 33 games — does not bode well for Minnesota.
Despite Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa showing flashes of brilliance, going a combined 5 for 15 with two doubles and a homer this month, the rest of the team needs to elevate their game to prevent a once-promising season from unraveling entirely.
In a season teetering on the edge, the Twins are increasingly desperate to find themselves as a team. "We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this," said Baldelli. The coming weeks will reveal whether the Twins can muster the resilience and fortitude necessary to right the ship and secure a postseason berth.