The Kansas City Royals' recent journey in the pursuit of a playoff spot has been nothing short of turbulent. Once commanding a 6 1/2 game cushion by the end of August, the team now finds itself amidst a grueling battle as the season reaches its climax. After securing a decisive victory over the Cleveland Guardians on August 27, the Royals seemed to be in an enviable position, tied for first place in their division.
However, the optimism following that victory quickly dissipated. Since August 27, the team has endured a rocky 7-16 record, marred by two separate seven-game losing streaks. As a result, the Royals have fallen into a tie with the Detroit Tigers for the second and third wild-card spots, with the Minnesota Twins breathing down their necks, just a game behind. With the Twins and Tigers set to conclude their seasons with six home games each, the Royals face a more daunting task, wrapping up on the road against the Washington Nationals and the Atlanta Braves.
While a 37-38 road record doesn’t inspire overwhelming confidence, the Royals' playoff hopes are far from extinguished. According to SportsLine, the team still holds a 60.5% chance of securing a postseason berth. Yet, to achieve this, the Royals must confront a stark reality: their once-potent offense has dwindled markedly over the past month.
Offensive Woes
A look at the numbers paints a concerning picture. Since August 27, the Royals have managed a batting line of .206/.273/.317, averaging a mere 3.04 runs per game. This is a stark contrast to their pre-August 27 performance, where they hit .258/.314/.425, averaging 4.88 runs per game. Key injuries have contributed to this decline, most notably the sidelining of Vinnie Pasquantino. Despite these setbacks, Bobby Witt Jr. has been a shining light in an otherwise gloomy batting lineup, maintaining an above-average performance by weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+).
Witt Jr.'s consistency has been evident, with an eye-catching .416/.467/.774 slash line from June 30 to August 27, including 17 doubles, three triples, 15 home runs, 41 RBIs, and 50 runs over 48 games. Even in the recent 23-game slump, Witt Jr. has held strong, batting .261/.340/.500. However, the rest of the lineup has faltered, and the absence of contributions from other players, like Yuli Gurriel who has played just 13 games, has been palpable.
Pitching Struggles
The Royals' pitching staff, particularly the bullpen, has also faced challenges. Lucas Erceg, who had a stellar start to his tenure with a 0.00 ERA, 0.49 WHIP, and 15 strikeouts against one walk in his first 11 outings, has seen his performance decline sharply. Since August 27, Erceg’s ERA has ballooned to 7.45 with a 1.55 WHIP. He has blown two saves and taken three losses during this period.
Overall, the Royals' bullpen has a 4.33 ERA over the last 23 games, with seven bullpen losses and four blown saves. Facing teams with winning records in 17 of those games hasn’t helped their cause either. The recent sweep by the 77-79 San Francisco Giants epitomizes the Royals' struggles during a critical juncture of the season.
A Final Push
As the Royals embark on a six-game road trip to close out the season, the stakes couldn’t be higher. The team is aiming for its first postseason appearance since their World Series title in 2015. While "we had a tough schedule" and "we lost to a playoff contender" aren't valid excuses, the challenges they face are undeniable. The coming days will test their resilience and ability to recapture the form that once placed them in a commanding position.
To secure a playoff spot, the Royals will need key players like Bobby Witt Jr. to continue leading by example while hoping for a turnaround in performance from both the batting lineup and the bullpen. Fans will be eager to see if the Royals can rise to the occasion and clinch a spot in the postseason despite the hurdles in their path.