Statements:
The Chicago Cubs' bullpen woes were on full display once again on Tuesday night.
Carrying a slim 2-1 lead into the ninth inning in the first game of a three-game series with the Tampa Bay Rays, the Cubs looked to nominal closer Hector Neris to secure the victory. Unfortunately for Chicago, Neris melted down, surrendering a three-run walk-off home run to Brandon Lowe that resulted in a 5-2 defeat (TB 5, CHC 2).
A Season of Struggles
The loss highlighted a troubling trend for Chicago, who have now lost 13 of their last 18 games. The bullpen's performance has been a significant factor in the team's struggles. Currently, the Cubs' bullpen ranks 25th in ERA (4.47), 26th in WHIP (1.37), and 22nd in strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.23). Perhaps most concerning is their 27th place ranking in win probability added, with a disappointing -0.66 for the season.
During this dismal 5-13 stretch, the Cubs have squandered leads in critical situations. They've notably lost three games despite leading in the sixth inning or later. Additionally, they let another game slip away after being tied in the seventh inning. If these leads had held, we would be discussing a frustrating 8-10 stretch rather than a disastrous 5-13 run.
The Hector Neris Conundrum
Hector Neris was seen as a key addition when he was signed to a one-year deal worth $9 million over the winter. Heading into Tuesday's game, Neris had a respectable 2.63 ERA. However, a deeper look at his performance reveals some concerning trends. Neris had walked 17 batters — nearly as many as he had struck out (22). Performance estimators suggest there's some smoke and mirrors in play, with a 4.11 ERA and 4.75 xERA. Neris is 9 for 12 in save chances, but his inability to consistently close games has magnified the Cubs' bullpen issues.
Offensive Inconsistency
It’s not just the bullpen that's been struggling; the Cubs' offense has also failed to provide adequate support. On Tuesday, the offense managed just two runs and has been averaging 3.89 runs per game during this 5-13 stretch. A more potent offense could alleviate some pressure off the bullpen by giving the relievers a larger cushion to work with. As it stands, it feels like the Cubs have no margin for error every night.
A Glimmer of Hope
Despite the shaky bullpen, inconsistent offense, and a poor 5-13 record in their last 18 games, there is a silver lining: the Cubs are only one game out of a wild-card spot. Mediocrity is widespread in the National League, and plenty of time remains for the Cubs to turn things around. However, the team clearly has problems that need addressing.
Critical Juncture
Tuesday's loss dropped Chicago to 32-35 on the season. Interestingly, the Rays improved to an identical 32-35. As the Cubs continue their series with the Rays, the schedule promises tough matchups in the coming weeks with several strong teams on the horizon. If Chicago hopes to remain in the wild-card race, improvements need to come swiftly in both bullpen performance and offensive output. Fans are growing impatient, and the margin for error is shrinking.
The Cubs are at a critical juncture. The bullpen's struggles highlight a larger issue that extends to the entire team's performance. There is still time for a turnaround, but whether they can seize the moment remains to be seen.